POLITICAL DEJA VU
A lot things prove that In 2016 in a race to the White House will be attended by members of two politically most influential families in the USA. The Bush Clan gave America two presidents who managed the country through three cadencies. The Clintons lived in the White House for nearly all the 90s of the last century. These surnames are an icon of the American political stage, its inseparable part and what is the most important – they still have ab enormous electoral potential. So, there is going to be a competition of the giants
The America A.D. 1992, there is a presidential campaign. The reelection is being applied for by the republican George H.W. Bush, whose rival is a young politician from Arkansas – a democrat Bill Clinton. The first one is initially considered as an unquestioned favorite. After all, during his cadency there was the end of the cold war, the Soviet Union collapsed and the Berlin Wall was pulled down, and the United States became one of a super-powerful country in the world. Foreign policy is practically pursued without any mistakes, many successes on the international arena strengthen such a strong position of the Office of the President. Despite that, in 1992 the election is won by a governor of Arkansas State, Bill Clinton. What decided about the defeat of Bush? Many commentators of the American political stage points to the electoral debate as one of the reasons for the defeat, during which George H.W. Bush somehow glanced at his watch. This gesture was perceived by some electors as an evidence that the president was in hurry for something, so has something more important than the electoral campaign in his mind. It was not so, but in the eyes of some Americans George H. W. Bush lost credibility. Presidential debates in America are an inseparable part of an electoral campaign. The Americans, unlike Poles, do not imagine that a TV debate would not take place. The candidate to the White House, who would refuse to participate in a TV confrontation with his rival, could stop thinking about presidency at once. Results of a debate significantly influence decisions which the Americans make at electoral polls. For this reason, even the slightest mistake, a sign of uncertainty or confusion can destroy chances for a victory.
A political repetition
In the presidential elections next year, the Americans can experience political déjà vu. A lot of facts prove that a republican John Ellis ‘Jeb’ Bush, son of George H. W. Bush and a democrat Hillary Clinton, a wife of the 42nd president of the USA Bill Clinton will compete together. These surnames still attract crowds of people, have an enormous electoral potential and are rightly considered as the most influential ones in the American policy.
Under the reigns of Barack Obama, America started turning left. A significant victory of the Republican Party (col. Grand Old Party – GOP) in the last-year elections to the Congress showed clearly that the Americans want to stop this ‘leftist experiment’. The USA Society gave Obama’s administration a red card. The Republicans gained 247 places in the Chamber of Representatives and 54 in the Senate. Moreover, in the both chambers the conservatives from GOP are the majority. So, Obama is in a difficult situation – in many issues he has no possibility to do anything. The president is worried also by another problem – low social support. The forthcoming election will be important for America. The game will be about the return to traditional Christian and republican values, which were the fundament of making the United States. Whereas, if the Democrats win, the USA will face cadency of Barack Obama, encore, so, another leftist reforms.
A candidate of the Republicans
In the Republican Party there are going to be hard-fought primaries, a few strong candidates are going to fight for nomination. However, a lot things point to the fact that it is ‘Jeb’ Bush who has the biggest chances to win. As the representative of the American rightist party, he opts for low taxes and the capitalist economy based on rules of the free market. As he said himself – he believes in the traditional marriage which is created by a woman and a man. He is an oppositionist to putting an equality mark between the homo- and hetero-sexual couples. He opposes to abortion ‘to the wish’. He supports the universal right to own weapon which is provided in the USA by the 2nd amendment to the Constitution of the United States. As the governor of the Florida State, he introduced the law ‘stand your ground’, according to which the boundary of necessary defence is increased. He supports death penalty, which – according to the conservatists – arousing fear in potential criminals, saves life of their would-be victims. If ‘Jeb’ Bush wins the race to the White House, he will be the second, after John F. Kennedy a Catholic president (all the others were protestants). The American society is a conservatist society. Even the American leftist party mostly declares its faith in God. A candidate for president who would be an atheist, would not have any slightest chances to win. In secularized Europe it may shock, but oversea it is something completely normal. ‘Jeb’ Bush got married to Columba Garnica Gallo, coming from Mexico, speaks Spanish fluently, and in relation to illegal immigrants, who have already arrived in America, he expresses his more liberal opinion. It may attract a big part of Latino electors to him, who traditionally voted for the Democrats. Immigrants from the country of sombrero hats have the first chance in the history of the United States to have ‘their own’ first lady. In the opinion of some commentators, the fact that ‘Jeb’ Bush is a younger brother of president George W. Bush may bring harm to him in the electoral campaign. However, it is a wrong way of understanding, as George W. Bush is very popular with most Americans.
A candidate of the Democrats
Many journalists and experts commenting on the elections in the USA, have already proclaimed Hillary Clinton as a candidate of the Democratic Party in a race to the White House. In fact – she is an unquestioned favourite candidate. In the widely understood American leftist party, it is hard today to find somebody who would have a better electoral potential than the former secretary of the State. It is surely too early to speak about Hilary as the final candidate of the Democrats. In the primaries in 2008, wife of Bill Clinton was also considered as a favourite person. Barack Obama, who was her political rival, had little chance. Despite that, it was him who gained nomination in the Democratic Party, finally. Gaining crowds, especially young leftist supporters, he won primaries in other states. The presidential election next year is a fight for everything for the former first lady. She is slowly reaching the age of 70, and at this age not everyone is able to be at the helm of the most important country in the world. In the history of the USA we had only one president older than Hilary Clinton – it was Ronald Reagan. The Democrats wanted then use an argument of his age against him. In a presidential debate a journalist Henry Trewhitt from ‘The Baltimore Sun’ asked Ronald Reagan applying for reelection: - You are the oldest president in the history of the USA. Do you have any doubts that you will not meet requirements the president faces? Reagan not only managed to answer the difficult question, but also destroyed his rival’s chances for a victory. He said he did not have any doubts about his strength. He also added that he would not allow for the issue of his age to be used to the disadvantage of his younger and inexperienced rival. He also reversed the issue by 180° from something which was a weak point in the eyes of many people. His rival Walter Mondale said later, when he heard a statement of Reagan, that he had already been sure about his losing the election. Will Hilary Clinton be so successful? This question remains open. She will face a long and exhausting electoral campaign, if she loses her strength at some moment, she will have to resign from the presidency.
America needs a strong leader, especially today – when the Islamic terrorism raises its head, and Wladimir Putin is raging in the east of Europe. ‘Jeb’ Bush, like other republican politicians, opts for a stronger policy towards Russia. So, it seems that in the case of his victory the foreign policy of Washington will be more consistent. There is still a little time till the election. However, we can say that there is going to be a severe rivalry.